Kenya

With over 90% of its electricity generated from renewable sources, the establishment of several frameworks for environmental governance, and the continued implementation of green policies across the economy, Kenya is a bold leader in East Africa on climate action. With its power sector nearly decarbonised, parts of the economy still reliant on fossil fuels such as the transport and industrial sectors represent opportunities for Kenya to build on its success and go further.

Despite significant progress in clean power, other sectors continue to pose a challenge. Notably, 73% of Kenya’s total emissions in 2022 came from the agriculture, land use change, and forestry sector (AFOLU). These emissions have grown dramatically over the last 20 years, with current levels far outpacing projections in the NDC baseline and putting Kenya’s 2030 target at risk.

Blunting this trajectory means tackling the problem at its literal roots: rampant deforestation. With traditional fuels such as firewood, charcoal, and kerosene used by nearly 70% of households in Kenya for cooking, and an economy heavily reliant on agriculture, demand for wood and land for cultivation is significant, outpacing public efforts at reforestation. Agriculture is the single-largest driver of deforestation in Kenya, with natural forests cleared to make room for farmland. This weakens the carbon absorption of Kenya’s forests while increasing methane emissions from livestock, which have a warming effect many times more potent than CO₂.

With the submission of its new NDC in April 2025, Kenya has committed to a 35% reduction in emissions below a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2035. Although we consider Kenya’s unconditional 2035 target 1.5°C compatible, it lacks ambition, leading to emissions being 56 MtCO₂e higher in 2035 (excl. LULUCF) than in 2030 and 74–114% above current policy projections. Additionally, the 2035 target’s formulation as a reduction from a BAU scenario, coupled with the government’s right to revise this baseline, raise concerns about transparency and risk undermining Kenya’s plans for a climate transition.

The 2035 NDC also does not commit to a fossil fuel phase-out, lacks clarity on the role of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions, and does not include sectoral targets for reducing AFOLU emissions. In short, the 2035 NDC represents a missed opportunity to raise Kenya’s ambition in the global fight to limit warming to 1.5°C.

There have been several positive developments in Kenya since our last update:

• Major progress in access to electricity: Programmes like the Last Mile Connectivity Project have dramatically expanded access to electricity across Kenya, with connection rates rising from 37% in 2013 to 79% in 2023. Kenya aims to achieve universal access to electricity by 2030, a long-running goal crucial to unlocking the full potential of its renewable energy, which provided over 90% of total electricity in 2024. While energy consumption per capita has increased by 74% since 2000, the overall energy intensity of the economy has fallen by 23% and Kenya’s GDP has grown 10 times larger, showing how expanding access to clean electricity serves social, environmental, and economic goals.
• Government push for clean cooking: The Kenya National Cooking Transition Strategy (KNCTS) and Kenya National Electric Cooking Strategy (KneCS) aim to achieve universal access to clean cooking materials by 2028. Kenya has already made significant progress, with access to clean cooking rising from 10% in 2013 to 31% in 2023. To meet its target of universal access to clean cooking by 2028, the government will need to accelerate its efforts.
• A growing role for wind and solar: The share of wind and solar in power generation has increased considerably over the last five years due to a strong policy and regulatory framework through the Energy Act 2019 and Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2021–2030. Wind and solar provided around 18% of electricity in 2024, compared to a negligible share ten years before.
• New policies to support clean energy: The National Energy Compact 2025–2030 aims to create new jobs, power economic growth, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels by reaching 100% clean energy in power generation by 2030. The National Energy Policy 2025–2034 sets the strategic direction for Kenya’s energy sector over the next decade, addressing energy access, security, efficiency, and sustainability across the national grid.

To improve its rating and strengthen its commitment to climate action, Kenya could:

• Commit to phasing out fossil fuels: While Kenya does not use coal or fossil gas in electricity generation, and oil’s share of generation has been steadily falling, the government continues to explore opportunities to develop domestic coal and fossil gas resources. Both the LCPDP and National Energy Compact wrongly envision fossil gas and LNG as transition fuels, although such efforts risk creating stranded assets that will damage Kenya’s environment and weaken its climate ambitions.
• Strengthen its 2035 NDC: Kenya’s 2035 NDC relies on a counterfactual BAU scenario, which the government reserves the right to adjust at any time. This undermines the target’s reliability, as any changes to the BAU scenario would also change the targeted emissions level in 2035. The new NDC also lacks transparency about the role of LULUCF emissions and Kenya’s plans to sell emissions reductions under the Paris Agreement's Article 6. The government should act to strengthen this target through an NDC update, as it did with its 2030 NDC target.
• Develop a plan for reducing methane emissions in the agricultural sector: Methane’s warming potential is far more potent than carbon dioxide, particularly in the short term, meaning emissions reductions in this area have an outsized impact on global temperatures. The agricultural sector is Kenya’s biggest source of methane, but the government has not yet adopted a broad, sector-wide plan for reducing these emissions.

The CAT rates Kenya’s overall climate targets and policies as 'Almost sufficient'. The 'Almost sufficient' rating indicates that Kenya’s climate policies or commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements.

Kenya’s policies and action and unconditional NDC target meet its fair share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, Kenya’s conditional target is currently only compatible with 2-3°C of warming and should be strengthened. The strong difference in the two ratings reflects Kenya’s situation as a country with significant development needs and a small historical responsibility, but with sizable mitigation potential within its own borders, which could be unlocked with international support.

There is significant room for the government to increase its climate ambition, as many sectors are likely to exceed their current climate targets. The CAT rates Kenya’s policies and action as '1.5°C compatible' when compared to its fair contribution. However, there is significant potential for mitigation actions to go beyond Kenya’s fair share with the help of international support.

Kenya’s energy future is at a crossroads: while renewable energy accounts for over 90% of electricity generation, just short of the government’s target of being powered entirely by green energy by 2030, there are still discussions around incorporating coal and fossil gas into the energy mix in the long term. While plans to revive the development of the Lamu coal power plant have been cancelled, the future of the Kitui coal plant is still unclear.

While measures to meet emission reduction targets for the power sector, transport, and agriculture sectors are underway, it is unclear to what extent other mitigation actions outlined in the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) are being implemented.

We rate Kenya’s conditional NDC as 'Insufficient' when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The 'Insufficient' rating indicates that Kenya’s conditional target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kenya’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. Kenya should improve its conditional target and specify support needs to achieve it. Even a small improvement in the target would change its rating to 'Almost sufficient'.

We rate Kenya’s unconditional NDC target as '1.5°C compatible' when compared to their fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. The '1.5°C compatible' rating indicates that Kenya’s target that it wants to achieve through its own efforts is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

Emissions from LULUCF have risen dramatically over the last 20 years and contributed 41% of Kenya’s total emissions in 2022. The primary reasons for deforestation are the conversion of forest land to agriculture, unsustainable utilisation of forest products (including charcoal), forest fires and shifting cultivation.

Of these, agriculture appears to serve as the single-largest driver of deforestation. As a result, despite reported improvements in tree cover across Kenya, LULUCF emissions continue to rise rapidly, outpacing government expectations and threatening the country’s climate progress.