No major changes in ambition: High chance to exceed 3°C

This "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. The website provides an up-to-date assessment of individual national pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Three days before the start of the next round of UN negotiations on climate change in Bonn, actions pledged globally on reductions of greenhouse gas emissions give virtually no chance to limit global mean temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius. Analysis on several developing countries was added to the Climate Action Tracker that show movement in the right direction: Bhutan pledged to stay carbon neutral, Papua New Guinea pledged to significantly reduce its emissions. The situation of developed countries has not changed. Talks in Bonn will focus on possible accounting rules for forests. These rules have significant implications on the stringency of the pledges reductions.

Press release, 29 July 2010: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/pr_2010_07_29.pdf

Article by Climate Action Tracker authors in journal "Nature": http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7292/full/4641126a.html

Briefing Paper: Copenhagen Climate Deal - how to close the gap? http://www.climateactiontracker.org/briefing_paper.pdf

For further information go to Methodology.

Individual country assessment

With present policies Climate Action Tracker projects total GHG emissions in 2020 to be around 57 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent per year from all sources (business as usual). The low ambition end of the proposals deliver a reduction of only 2 billion tonnes.

The strongest proposals, which are nearly all conditional on a strong Copenhagen agreement, with financial support for developing countries, would reduce up to a further 7 billion tonnes. The best proposals on the table are only half way to what the science indicates are the emission limits in 2020 that are needed for a good chance of limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. The best proposals give about 9 billion tonnes, whereas at least 13-17 billion tonnes of reductions are needed.

In ten years from now global emissions will need to be below 40-44 billion tonnes per year (i.e. below current levels of 46 billion tonnes per year, 2008) to have more than an even chance of limiting warming to 2°C, as called for by the major emitters globally, or ultimately to below 1.5°C by 2100 as put forward by 100 developing countries, including the Small Island States and Least Developed Countries as essential for their survival.

Provided that all of most ambitious measures on the table now are agreed, the required additional reductions of 4 to 8 billion tonnes could be reached for example by any combination of:
- Developed countries as a group agreeing to increase ambition to a 30% reduction below 1990 in 2020 (from currently maximum of 19% without forestry credits) - 2 billion tonnes; Increasing this to 40-45% below 1990 level in 2020 would reduce a further 2-3 billion tonnes.
- Developing countries as a group to reduce to 30% below their stated business as usual emissions in 2020 - 4.5 billion tonnes. The resulting emission level would be sufficient to be in the range consistent with IPCC and would require financial and technical support from developed countries.
- Halt deforestation by 2020 - 2 billion tonnes. Brazil and Indonesia together have already announced plans to reduce deforestation emissions, which globally represent about 40 to 50% reductions from recent levels by 2020 (or about the same from estimated 1990 deforestation emissions). This would also need financial and technical support from developed countries.
- Reducing international aviation and marine (shipping) CO2 emissions, which are currently uncontrolled and expected to grow fast, to half of the expected levels in 2020 - 1 billion tonnes.
- Removing the crediting for forestry and other land-use management activities would reduce allowed developed country emissions by - 1 billion tonnes/year (these credits add to the emissions allowed by countries).

Click on countries for individual assessment.