What’s new?

Updates, new countries and slight change in method | 29 July 2010
Assessments were updated for all countries (Annex I and non-Annex I). We updated effort sharing calculations to be in line with a global emission limit of 44 GtCO2e in 2020. Due to the updates in the effort sharing ranges, South Africa and South Korea improved one category. Due to changed methodology Costa Rica's rating decreased. As new countries we added Bhutan, Israel, Moldova, Papua New Guinea and Singapore. Updates and new countries | 10 June 2010
Assessment for Annex I countries and China were updated, Kazakhstan was added as new country. New paper in Nature by Climate Action Tracker authors | 22 April 2010
"Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry" titles an article in the journal "Nature" by Climate Action Tracker authors. They find that the current national emissions reduction pledges accompanying the Copenhagen Accord will not limit global warming to two degrees Celsius. In fact, they imply a global mean temperature increase of more than three degrees Celsius this century. This joint effort of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Climate Analytics and Ecofys can be found at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7292/full/4641126a.html Ambition of only two developed countries sufficiently stringent for 2°C | 2 Feb 2010
55 countries submit their targets under the Copenhagen Accord. Almost all countries reaffirm their proposals made in the Copenhagen negotiations in December 2009. Copenhagen Accord agreed | 19 Dec 2009
The Copenhagen Accord was agreed at the end of the Copenhagen climate summit. It aspires 2°C, but it remains unclear whether it will be achieved. Currently, no quantified emission reductions are provided for any country, or groups of countries. By 1 February 2010, countries are to make proposals for emission reductions. The Climate Action Tracker assessment remains unchanged, but will be updated as new information becomes available. Briefing Paper: Copenhagen Climate Deal - how to close the gap? | 16 Dec 2009
This paper provides an overview of the reduction proposals that countries put forward until 15 December 2009 as collected for the Climate Action Tracker by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It also includes illustrative options for reductions, which go beyond the most optimistic interpretation of the proposals.

http://www.climateactiontracker.org/briefing_paper.pdf New Zealand's effective target recalculated based on new forestry data | 15 Dec 2009
Data newly submitted to UNFCCC (November 2009) on forest management from New Zealand allows a first calculation of its preferred 'forward-looking baseline' option for forestry credits, which was previously not feasible. With the new data we estimate that New Zealand's preferred 'forestry' ( or more technically LULUCF - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) accounting leads to a large credit of uncertain magnitude by 2020, which effectively increases New Zealand's allowed emission limit for the 2020 period. Consequently, its reduction proposal of 10% below 1990 is less stringent after accounting for these credits and is rated Inadequate. Updated global pathway | 14 Dec 2009
With only five days to go before a Head of Government Agreement on climate change at Copenhagen, even the best emission reductions proposal are only half way to the limits in 2020 that would keep global average temperature rise below 2°C or 1.5°C as called for by 100 countries. Climate Action Tracker updated its global pathway analysis.

Press release: http://www.ecofys.com/com/news/pressreleases2009/pressrelease14122009.htm Joint press release on the gap | 13 Dec 2009
Recent independent analyses of current mitigation proposals on the table in Copenhagen by Nicholas Stern, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys, Climate Analytics, the Sustainability Institute (CROADS), the European Climate Foundation and Climate Works (Project Catalyst), all point to the same conclusion: the negotiations must deliver the high end of current proposals and stretch beyond them, if the world is to have a reasonable chance of containing warming to below 2°C above preindustrial levels, or the 1.5°C goal of 100 developing nations.

Read the full release under http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=606&ArticleID=6405&l=en Mexico moves from 20% to 30% below BAU in 2020 | 12 Dec 2009
Mexico increased its offer from 20% to 30% reduction below the BAU in 2020. The target is still conditional to financial support. Mexico remains at Medium. Russia clarifies status of earlier announced emission targets | 11 Dec 2009
During the Copenhagen climate summit, The Russian Federation stated that the 2020 targets announced some weeks before by President Dmitri Medwedew were not to be interpreted as an official submission of internationally binding emission reduction targets. The assessment of Russia's targets by Climate Analytics and Ecofys now returns to Russia's earlier submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which amounts to a reduction of 10 to 15% below 1990 by 2020. This reduces the low-ambition end of the reduction range by developed countries from 8% to 6% below 1990 by 2020. The global emissions pathway and climate projections will be updated halfway through the Copenhagen summit, including other recent developments. South Africa offers target | 9 Dec 2009
The day before the Copenhagen climate summit, South Africa announced an emission reduction target. It is welcomed that South Africa proposes a quantitative target. However, South Africa remains at Inadequate, because the target is conditional. India offers target | 9 Dec 2009
India has offered a target to reduce emissions per GDP by 20% to 25% from 2005 to 2020. Assessment of the target is difficult as the underlying data were not provided. While it is welcomed that a quantitative target is proposed, it does not seem to add ambition to earlier climate plans. India stays at Medium rating. Copenhagen deal headed for 3.5°C warming | 3 Dec 2009
"Climate Action Tracker" shows that the world is headed for a global warming of 3.5°C by 2100. Carbon dioxide concentrations of are projected to be over 650 ppm, with total GHG concentrations close to 800 ppm CO2 equivalent.
After accounting for the new position of Russia, the announcement of President Obama of a US emission reduction pledge for Copenhagen, the developed country emission reductions as a whole are currently projected to be 13-19% below 1990 levels by 2020. However the proposed forest credits these countries want would degrade this by about 5% with the effective reductions in industrial GHG emissions being 8-14% below 1990 levels by 2020. Indonesian data revised | 2 Dec 2009
The greenhouse gas emission data for Indonesia was revised. It is now based on the National Climate Change Council draft report "Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve" by McKinsey as presented to the press in August 2009. The rating did not change. China and USA announce targets | 27 Nov 2009
USA and China have announced new emission targets on 25 and 26 November 2009 respectively. The US president stated that the US emissions reduction target would be in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 and in line with the final climate and energy legislation. USA remains at Inadequate. The ambition level of the Chinese international target is lagging behind the ambition level as we have interpreted it from the existing national climate plans. As a consequence China's rating moves from Moderate to Inadequate. New Russian Federation target of 25% below 1990 levels | 24 Nov 2009
Russian President Dmitri Medwedew announced a new target of 22-25% below 1990 levels for 2020, an improvement from the previous target of 15%. We now take the range for commitments for 2020 to be 20-25% below 1990. Switzerland's forestry credits updated to be more consistent with own proposals | 20 Nov 2009
Based on our review of Switzerland's submission, we recalculated the credits/debits from LULUCF accounting. The accounting method for the accounting period 2013-2020 was changed from net-net relative to 1990 to net-net relative to the first commitment period (Kyoto Protocol period). This has changed a large debit to a small credit around 2020. This means Switzerland's allowed industrial emissions by 2020 increased compared to the earlier version. Switzerland moves from Sufficient to Medium. This illustrates the importance of the details in the LULUCF methodology proposed by Parties. Brazil and Korea propose targets | 17 Nov 2009
Brazil and South Korea have announced emission reduction targets. Brazil moves from Medium to Sufficient and Korea moves from Inadequate to Medium. Climate Action Tracker public release | 06 Nov 2009
The Climate Action Tracker was released publically at the end of an intense week of climate talks in Barcelona. Experts beta-test Climate Action Tracker | 30 Oct 2009
A select group of experts have started beta-testing the Climate Action Tracker.