UNEP Gap reports

2010 Emissions Gap Report

The Climate Action Tracker were co-authors of the UNEP   “The Emissions Gap Report – Are the Copenhagen Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2°C or 1.5°C?”.  We contributed data for the report, which was released in Cancun, December 2010.

It estimated a gap of 5-9 GtCO2eq a year, assuming a 2020 2°C-consistent level of 44 GtCO2eq a year (rather than a range of 39-44 assessed in that report). The UNEP Gap Report assessed whether the pledges countries made under the Copenhagen Accord are sufficient to achieve the Accord’s temperature targets, or whether the pledges will result in a gap between the 2020 emissions levels - and the levels needed to hold temperature increase below 2°C and return below 1.5^oC.

The latter levels are derived from pathways that limit global temperature increase to below 2 or that return to 1.5°C by 2100. The emission levels in 2020 expected from the pledges are based on the analysis results of thirteen independent international modeling groups. The 2010 UNEP Gap Report quantified the emissions gaps for four policy cases, each with their respective gap estimate:

• unconditional pledges – lenient rules: 9 GtCO₂e gap (range 8 to 18 GtCO₂e)
• unconditional pledges – strict rules: 8 GtCO₂e gap (range 6 to 16 GtCO₂e)
• conditional pledges – lenient rules: 7 GtCO₂e gap (range 5 to 14 GtCO₂e)
• conditional pledges – strict rules: 5 GtCO₂e gap (range 3 to 12 GtCO₂e)

The Climate Action Tracker assessments of the state of the negotiations are comparable to the “unconditional pledges – lenient rules” case of the UNEP Gap Report. The Climate Action Tracker estimated at that time an emissions gap of 10 GtCO₂e in 2020 and finds itself close to median and within the 8 to 18 GtCO₂e range of the UNEP Gap Report. 

2011 Bridging the Emissions Gap report

In December 2011, UNEP presented its “Bridging the Emissions Gap” report, that was again prepared with the significant involvement of experts from the Climate Action Tracker team.

The Climate Action Tracker currently estimates an emissions gap of 12 GtCO₂e in 2020 and finds itself close to median and within the 7 to 16 GtCO₂e range of the UNEP Gap Report for the equivalent case (unconditional pledges, lenient rules).